Do neighboring herd sizes influence the incidence of farmerherder conflicts? a case study from Kilosa District, Tanzania
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Date
2025
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
AJOL
Abstract
Farmer-herder conflicts had been widely studied in the Sub-Saharan region, with most
literature emphasizing the causes and effects within the origins of these conflicts. However, the
impact of neighboring herd sizes on the incidence of these conflicts received limited attention. This
study aimed to address this gap by analyzing ward-level data on herd sizes and conflict presence in
Kilosa District, Tanzania. Using Logistic Regression Models (LRM) and Geographically Weighted
Logistic Regression Models (GWLRM), we estimated the spillover effects of neighboring herd
sizes. Our findings revealed that farmer-herder conflicts remained a significant challenge in Kilosa
District, with over 50% of the wards experiencing conflicts. Results from both spatial and nonspatial models indicated that neighboring herd size was a strong predictor of these conflicts. An
increase in neighboring herd size significantly raised the likelihood of conflict occurrence. The
GWLRM results further suggested that the spillover effect of neighboring herd sizes was locationdependent, showing significance in specific areas. The spatial variation in the impact of neighboring
herd sizes highlighted the importance of considering local geographical contexts when addressing
these conflicts. This study underscored the need for locally tailored strategies to mitigate the
incidence of such conflicts effectively. Recommendations included implementing community-based
conflict resolution mechanisms, promoting sustainable herd management practices, and enhancing
communication between farmers and herders to foster mutual understanding and cooperation.
It calls for context-specific interventions to develop effective and sustainable solutions in Kilosa
District, Tanzania.
Description
Tanzania Journal of Agricultural Sciences
Keywords
Farmer-herder conflicts, Neighboring herd sizes, Kilosa District, Spillover effects.