Economic viability of the gliricidia-maize systems in selected dryland areas of Dodoma region, Tanzania
| dc.contributor.author | Swamila. M | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2024-06-04T10:06:39Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2024-06-04T10:06:39Z | |
| dc.date.issued | 2023 | |
| dc.description | Thesis | |
| dc.description.abstract | The optimal agricultural productivity in dryland areas of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is hindered by the ongoing high extent of land degradation and climate change. In addition, smallholder cereal food producers in these areas apply no or sub-optimal quantities of mineral fertilizers due to socio-economic and technical factors like high prices and risk of crop failure. Agroforestry using intercropping of Gliricidia (Gliricidia sepium (Jacq.)) and Maize (Zea mays L.) was developed to complement conventional soil fertility management technologies. This thesis is based on the case studies conducted in Kongwa and Chamwino districts in Dodoma, Tanzania between 2017 and 2020. Data gathered from Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) and simulation work carried out by the World Agroforestry (ICRAF) using the Next Generation versions of Gliricidia and maize models of the Agriculture Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM) were used to assess adoption potential, profitability, and risks associated with the Gliricidia-maize systems. These assessments were made in comparison with the base case of growing maize as a sole crop, with and without mineral fertilizers. Inspired by new tools that incorporate risk associated with crop yields and returns per hectare due to climatic variability, integrated ex-ante analytical approaches were used to advance understanding of the economic viability of the Gliricidia-maize relative to the sole maize systems. These analyses aimed to provide valuable insights to farmers, policy makers and development practitioners, to inform adoption and scaling up decisions. The results revealed variations in peak adoption levels, with Gliricidia intercropping exhibiting peak adoption of 67.6% in 12 years. The most influential factor affecting adoption is the upfront cost of investing in Gliricidia intercropping and mineral fertilizer technologies. The Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) results showed significant variations in profitability indicators in absolute and relative economic terms. The Gliricidia-maize systems exhibited higher Net Present Values (NPV) compared to the sole maize systems, with ranges of Tsh 12 967 021.45 (unfertilized Gliricidia-maize) to Tsh 17 592 701.74 (fertilized Gliricidia-maize) in contrast to Tsh 5 374 391.66 (fertilized sole maize) and Tsh 3 264 874.27 (unfertilized sole maize). The Benefit-Cost Ratio (BCR) varied from 1.86 (unfertilized sole maize) to 3.75 (fertilized Gliricidia-maize). Sensitivity analysis revealed that a decrease in output prices has a more significant negative impact on profitability of the Gliricidia-maize systems compared to an increase in input prices. A 30% decrease in output prices decreased NPV by 67.04% (fertilized Gliricidia-maize) to 74.4% (unfertilized Gliricidia- maize). Conversely, NPV declined by 11.7% to 14.5% following a 30% increase in input prices. Despite the higher initial costs of establishing agroforestry, the increase in input prices affects the sole maize systems more negatively in absolute economic terms, with a decrease in NPV of 27.7% to 48.4% compared to 11.7% to 14.5% for Gliricidia-maize systems. However, in relative economic terms, an equal change in input prices had a similar effect on the sole mize and the Gliricidia-maize systems. This result implies that the monetary benefits accrued after the first year of agroforestry establishment offset the initial investment costs. Risk analysis revealed that risk to net returns is higher in the sole maize than the Gliricidia-maize systems. The Coefficient of Variation (CV) for the net returns ranged from 64.04% to 66.88% and 51.38% to 52.63% for the sole maize and the Gliricidia-maize systems, respectively. The Gliricidia-maize systems presented 40% to 90% probability of exceeding the income poverty line of around Tsh 600 000 per adult equivalent per year in contrast to 0% probability presented by the sole maize systems. All production systems presented 0% probability of earning negative net returns except for the unfertilized sole maize system which had 5% probability. Stochastic efficiency analysis results show that the Gliricidia-maize systems are more preferred than the sole maize systems at lower (0) and upper (4) Risk Aversion Coefficients (RAC). The certainty equivalent values of yields of Gliricidia-maize are 139% and 78% higher than the sole maize systems at lower and upper RAC, respectively, under the negative exponential utility function. This suggests that both risk-neutral and extremely risk-averse decision makers would tend to prefer the Gliricidia-maize systems. Therefore, the Gliricidia-maize systems are economically viable and can contribute to increased household income and food security. Helping farmers to overcome initial investment costs and manage agroforestry systems well to generate additional benefits is critical for the successful scaling of Gliricidia-maize intercropping technology in dryland areas of Dodoma, Tanzania. | |
| dc.description.sponsorship | The United States Agency for International Development’s(USAID) and The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) | |
| dc.identifier.uri | https://www.suaire.sua.ac.tz/handle/123456789/6221 | |
| dc.language.iso | en | |
| dc.publisher | Sokoine University of Agriculture | |
| dc.subject | agricultural productivity | |
| dc.subject | gliricidia | |
| dc.subject | maize systems | |
| dc.subject | dryland areas | |
| dc.subject | Dodoma region | |
| dc.title | Economic viability of the gliricidia-maize systems in selected dryland areas of Dodoma region, Tanzania | |
| dc.type | Thesis |