Impact of projected climate change on agricultural production in semi-arid areas of Tanzania: a case of Same district
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Date
2012
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
African Crop Science Society
Abstract
Sub-Saharan Africa is one of the most vulnerable regions in the World to climate change because of widespread
poverty and limited adaptive capacity. The future climate change is likely to present an additional challenge to the
agricultural sector. Therefore, the effects of climate change on the current agronomic management practices were
investigated using Same District, Tanzania as a case study area. APSIM software was used to investigate the
response of maize (Zea mays L.) yield to different agronomic management practices using current and future
(2046 - 2065) climate data. The climate change projections data from global climate models were downscaled
using self-organising maps technique. Under the conventional practices, results show that during long rainy
season (from March to May) there is yield decline of 13% for cultivar Situka, no change for cultivar Kito and
increase of 10% and 15% for cultivars Sc401 and TMV1, respectively. Under the recommended practices,
cultivars TMV1 and Sc401 are projected to register a 10% yield increase whereas cultivars Situka and Kito are
projected to register a decrease of 10% and 45%, respectively. Also, under both conventional and recommended
management practices, results showed that during short rainy season (from October to December/January) all
cultivars are projected to register between 75% and 146% increase in maize yields. This implies that future
climate change is going to have positive effects on current management practices during short rainy seasons and
it will have negligible impact during long rainy seasons.
Description
Keywords
Adaptive capacity, APSIM, maize, modeling, Zea mays