Integrated assessment of climate change impacts and adaptation in agriculture: the case study of the Wami River Sub-basin, Tanzania
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Date
2020
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Springer Nature Switzerland AG
Abstract
This study evaluates the impacts of climate
change and an adaptation strategy on agricul-
ture in the Wami River sub-basin in Tanzania.
This study uses the Agricultural Model
Improvement and Inter-comparison Project
(AgMIP) framework that integrates climate,
crops and economic models and data using a
novel multi-model approach for impact assess-
ment of agricultural systems under current and future conditions. This study uses five Global
Circulation Models (GCMs) from the fifth
phase of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison
Project (CMIP5), two crop simulation models,
and one economic impact assessment model. In
this study, a representative agricultural path-
ways (RAP) that characterises future condi-
tions following ‘business-as-usual’ trends was
developed and used to model future agricul-
tural systems in the Wami River sub-basin.
Results show that by mid-century, the maxi-
mum and minimum temperatures will increase
by 1.8–4.1 °C and 1.4–4.6 °C, respectively.
Rainfall is predicted to be variable with some
places projected to increase by 12%, while in
other areas it is projected to decrease by 14–
28%. Maize yields under these conditions are
projected to decrease by 5.3–40.7%. Results
show that under current conditions, 50–60% of
farm households are vulnerable to losses due to
climate change. The impacts of climate change
on poverty and per capita income are also
projected to be negative. Under the current
production system, poverty rates were pro-
jected to increase by 0.8–15.3% and per-capita
income to drop by 1.3–7.5%. Future
socio-economic conditions and prices offset
the negative impacts of climate change. Under
future conditions, the proportion of households
vulnerable to loss is estimated to range from 25
to 50%. Per-capita income and poverty rates are
expected to improve under the future climate
change conditions. Poverty rates would
decrease between 1.9 and 11.2% and income
per-capita would increase between 2.6 and
18.5%. The proposed future adaptation pack-
age will further improve household liveli-
hoods. This integrated assessment of climate
change projections using the improved meth-
ods and tools developed by AgMIP has con-
tributed to a better understanding of climate
change and adaptation impacts in a holistic
manner.
Description
A Book chapter, Climate Variability and Change in Africa, Sustainable
Development Goals Series, 115-136 pp.
Keywords
Climate change, Impact assessment, Adaptation vulnerability, Tanzania