Extending the ReNAPRI model framework to poultry in Eastern & Southern Africa


In per capita terms, poultry consumption in Sub Saharan Africa remains low. As income grows, allowing for greater dietary diversification, expectations are that poultry consumption will also increase. To understand the possible extent of growth, as well as the possibilities to expand domestic production to supply it, this report considers demand preferences for poultry products in the region, before providing an overview of the current structure of poultry value chains in South Africa, Ghana, Kenya and Tanzania, as well as a quantitative modelling framework and a consistent market outlook, which integrates chicken and feed sectors and can be utilised to support strategic decision making in the sector in a forward looking context. The study found a tension between rapid growth in imports, and the general consumer preference for domestically produced chicken meat over imported products, and in many regions a preference for indigenous breeds over broilers. Despite differences between countries, the contribution of intensive production systems is growing, but cost competitiveness is a major driver of rising imports, underscoring the importance of a competitive feed sector to grow poultry production. Under baseline assumptions, imports are projected to remain an important contributor in supplying further demand growth. Nevertheless, a combination of interventions addressing productivity gains, feed cost competitiveness and carcass valuation opportunities can induce accelerated production growth, enabling domestic producers to capture a greater share of domestic demand growth in future.


D3 – Final Report


ReNAPRI model framework, poultry, Eastern Africa, Southern Africa, Agri-Economic policy, Agriculture & Development Policy, Africa, poultry consumption, dietary diversification, chicken feeds