Vanishing waters and growing settlements: tracking the impact of land use land cover changes on the Lower Mara River Basin
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Date
2025-08-17
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Springer Nature
Abstract
Rapid land use and land cover (LULC)
changes are transforming the ecological landscape of
Tanzania’s Lower Mara River Basin (LMRB), with
significant implications for water resources and eco-
system health. This study investigates the spatial and
temporal dynamics of LULC in the basin from 2003
to 2023, using Google Earth Engine and Landsat
imagery, and examines how these changes are linked
to population growth and precipitation variability.
Four LULC classes-vegetation, water bodies, settle-
ments, and other uses (mining, agriculture and bare-
land) were mapped and analyzed for the years 2003,
2013, and 2023. Results reveal a dramatic expansion
of settlement areas, from just 7.4% in 2003 to 42.1%
in 2023, driven by population increase of 26% from
2002 to 2022 and intensified economic activity. In
contrast, water bodies have sharply declined from
19.3% to 3.7% over the same period, while vegetation
cover, after a temporary increase linked to conserva-
tion efforts i.e. from 21.7% in 2003 to 28.8% in 2013,
has diminished in the past decade to 23% in 2023.
Although precipitation patterns showed variability,
they did not strongly correlate with overall LULC
changes, but did influence short-term vegetation and
water dynamics. The findings highlight the urgent
need for sustainable land management and water
resource policies, as unchecked settlement growth
and vanishing water bodies threaten the resilience and
ecological integrity of the LMRB. Immediate action
is required to balance economic development with
ecosystem conservation and secure the basin’s future
for both people and nature.
Description
Wetlands Ecology and Management
Keywords
Anthropogenic activities, Precipitation, LULC changes, Google Earth Engine, Lower Mara River Basin
Citation
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11273-025-10080-1