Density dependence and persistence of Morogoro arenavirus transmission in a fluctuating population of its reservoir host

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dc.contributor.authorMariën, Joachim
dc.contributor.authorBorremans, Benny
dc.contributor.authorVerhaeren, Christophe
dc.contributor.authorKirkpatrick, Lucinda
dc.contributor.authorGryseels, Sophie
dc.contributor.authorBellocq, Joëlle Goüy de
dc.contributor.authorGünther, Stephan
dc.contributor.authorSabuni, Christopher A.
dc.contributor.authorMassawe, Apia W.
dc.contributor.authorReijniers, Jonas
dc.contributor.authorLeirs, Herwig
dc.date.accessioned2026-07-22T11:44:51Z
dc.date.available2026-07-22T11:44:51Z
dc.date.issued2019-07-21
dc.descriptionJournal of Animal Ecology
dc.description.abstractA key aim in wildlife disease ecology is to understand how host and parasite characteristics influence parasite transmission and persistence. Variation in host population density can have strong impacts on transmission and outbreaks, and theory predicts particular transmission–density patterns depending on how para- sites are transmitted between individuals. Here, we present the results of a study on the dynamics of Morogoro arenavirus in a population of multimammate mice (Mastomys natalensis). This widespread African rodent, which is also the reservoir host of Lassa arenavirus in West Africa, is known for its strong seasonal density fluctuations driven by food availability. We investigated to what degree virus transmission changes with host population density and how the virus might be able to persist during periods of low host density.A seven‐year capture–mark–recapture study was conducted in Tanzania where rodents were trapped monthly and screened for the presence of antibodies against Morogoro virus. Observed seasonal seroprevalence patterns were com- pared with those generated by mathematical transmission models to test different hypotheses regarding the degree of density dependence and the role of chroni- cally infected individuals. We observed that Morogoro virus seroprevalence correlates positively with host density with a lag of 1–4 months. Model results suggest that the observed sea- sonal seroprevalence dynamics can be best explained by a combination of verti- cal and horizontal transmission and that a small number of animals need to be infected chronically to ensure viral persistence. Transmission dynamics and viral persistence were best explained by the existence of both acutely and chronically infected individuals and by seasonally changing transmission rates. Due to the presence of chronically infected rodents, rodent control is unlikely to be a feasible approach for eliminating arenaviruses such as Lassa virus from Mastomys populations.
dc.description.sponsorshipAntwerp study centre for disease (ASCID), Grant/Award Number: INCO‐DEV grant ICA4‐CT2002‐10050 and GOA BOF FFB3567; German Research Foundation, Grant/Award Number: Focus Programs GU 883/3‐1 and GU 883/3‐2 from Deut
dc.identifier.citationDOI: 10.1111/1365-2656.13107
dc.identifier.urihttps://www.suaire.sua.ac.tz/handle/20.500.14820/7819
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherBritish Ecological Society
dc.relation.ispartofseriesJournal of Animal Ecology 2020;89 (2): 506–518.
dc.subjectrenavirus
dc.subjectcapture‐mark‐recapture
dc.subjectmathematical modelling
dc.subjectMorogoro virus
dc.subjectmultimammate mouse
dc.subjectparasite‐host interactions
dc.subjectrodent‐borne parasite
dc.subjecttransmission dynamics
dc.titleDensity dependence and persistence of Morogoro arenavirus transmission in a fluctuating population of its reservoir host
dc.typeArticle

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