Browsing by Author "Lalika Makarius C.S."

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Machine learning algorithms for the prediction of drought conditions in the Wami River sub-catchment, Tanzania
(SPRINGER, 2024-04-16) Lalika Christossy; Mujahid Aziz Ul Haq; James Mturi; Lalika Makarius C.S.
Study region: This study refers to the Wami river sub-catchments in Eastern Tanzania. Study Focus: The five-machine learning (ML) algorithms, including long short-term memory (LSTM), multivariate adaptive regression spline (MARS), support vector machine (SVM), extreme learning machine (ELM), and M5 Tree, were used to predict the most widely used drought index, the standard precipitation index (SPI), at six and nine months. Algorithms were established using monthly rainfall data for the period from 1990 to 2022 at five meteorological stations distributed across the Wami River sub-catchment: Barega, Dakawa, Dodoma, Kongwa, and Mandera stations. New hydrological insights for the region. The predicted results of all five ML algorithms were evaluated using several statistical metrics, including Pearson’s correlation coefficient (R), mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), and Nash Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE). The prediction results revealed that LSTM perform better in predicting drought conditions using SPI6 (6-month SPI) and SPI9 (9-month SPI) with the highest NSE of 0.99 in all five stations, and R of 0.99 in four stations except at Kongwa station, where R range from 0.75 to 0.99. These prediction results will aid decision-makers and planners to develop a drought monitoring and drought early warning system in order to strengthen the governance and resilience to the catchment and people on the impacts of water scarcity and climate change.
The cost of domestic water provision in Morogoro Municipality, Tanzania
(ELSERVIER, 2024) Raphael Antidius; Ngaga Yonika; Lalika Makarius C.S.
Accessible water is a basic human right but due to its fugitiveness and paucity, water is an economic good, rather than a public one. A reduced supply of water causes high financial and social costs. This study examined using the cost-based approach, the value of Mindu Dam by providing public water to Morogoro Municipality in Tanzania. It focused on the cost of water treatment and of constructing boreholes to ensure an efficient water supply. Data were collected from Morogoro Water Supply and Sanitation Authority (MORUWASA), the Wami/Ruvu Basin Water Board (WRBWB) Office, and three wards of the municipal- ity. Household data were analyzed by descriptive techniques that involved computation of proportions, and valuation data by cost-based approaches. Due to pollution and degrada- tion of the Mindu Dam, the municipality loses about 1,168,756,011 TZS (24,145.22 USD) per year for water treatment while the dam capacity decreases progressively. By using the boreholes alternative, the value of Mindu Dam by providing water is 64,074,304,515.07 TZS (27,626,570 USD) in the investment year and 39,828,547,584 TZS (17,172,659 USD) per year then after. This value was unrevealed and not considered in decision-making, leading to prolonged degradation. It is advised from this study for regulatory authorities to conduct valuation studies and use them to refine appropriate decisions to promote conservation and avoid unnecessary financial losses. The final value should also take into consideration the intrinsic value that water has, not only the direct one that is easily traceable.
The impacts of anthropogenic activities on the physicochemical water quality of Pinyinyi River, Arusha-Tanzania
(JWEMPO, 2024-01-17) Omary Rajabu; Lalika Makarius C.S.; Nguvava Mariam; Mgimwa Emmanuel
Rivers are important for aquatic biodiversity. Anthropogenic activities de- grade rivers and decrease their capacity to offer ecosystem services. This study used macroinvertebrates to assess the impact of anthropogenic activities on the Pinyinyi River during dry and wet season. Abundance of macroinverte- brates, average score per taxon and Shannon Weiner Species Diversity Index were used to state the ecological status of Pinyinyi River. Because the abun- dance of macroinvertebrates can be affected by change in water quality, some of the physicochemical parameters were also measured. A macroinvertebrates hand net is used to collect the macroinvertebrates per sampling point. DO, temperature, pH, turbidity and TDS were measured in-situ using HI-9829 Multiparameter and BOD was measured in the laboratory using Oxydirect le- vibond method. A total of 164 macroinvertebrates were collected and identi- fied from Pinyinyi River during dry and wet season. They belong to 13 fami- lies. The most abundant taxa were mosquito larva, Diptera (41.07%) and aq- uatic caterpillar, Lepidoptera (23.21%) during dry season representing about 64.28% of the total macroinvertebrates whereas the least abundant taxa were pouch snail (16.07%) and dragonflies, Odonata (19.64%) during dry season representing about 35.72% of the total macroinvertebrates. The most abun- dant taxa collected during wet season were aquatic earthworm, haplotaxida (19.44%), midges, Diptera (17.59%), black flies, Diptera (15.74%) and creep- ing water bugs, hemiptera (12.96%) whereas the least abundant were pigmy back swimmers, hemiptera (2.78%), snail (3.7%), predacious dividing beetle (4.63%) and coleopteran (4.63%). Average Score per taxon of Pinyinyi River during dry season was 5.25 and 3.6 during wet season. The Shannon Weiner Species Diversity Index was 1.318 during dry season and 2.138 during wet season. Based on the score, Pinyinyi River is moderately polluted during dry season and seriously polluted during wet season. Based on index, Pinyinyi River has low diversity of macroinvertebrates during dry season and highly in diversity of macroinvertebrates during wet season. Moreover, it was found that, agricultural activities, livestock keeping, bathing and washing alter phy- sicochemical parameters of Pinyinyi River and hence change the abundance of macroinvertebrates as well as the quality of water. The study, therefore, recommends that the source of pollutants should be controlled and the river regularly monitored by the relevant authorities.