Agronomic management strategies for adaptation to the current climate variability: the case of North-Eastern Tanzania
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Date
2014
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Abstract
Rainfed agriculture in semi-arid areas of sub-Saharan Africa faces a great challenge due to
increasingly high variability and unreliability of rainfall. Two of the effective adaptive responses
to reduce the vulnerability to the changing climate are through use of soil and water conservation
technologies and employment of improved agronomic practices. A study was conducted to
quantify the risk and profitability of agronomic management strategies for maize using long-term
climatic data and a crop simulation model. APSIM model was used to perform long-term
simulations of different management strategies. Simulated maize grain yield for different
cultivars and sets of management strategies were evaluated to establish the associated risks and
benefits. Results indicate that planting Situka or SC401 during Masika season instead of Kito or
other cultivars, gives a yield of more than 1 ton/ha under conventional methods. Maize yield
increases to 2t/ha or even higher with the use of fertilizers and recommended management
practices. The cost benefit analysis indicated that income greater than USD 700 per ha could be
obtained when recommended practices are applied, with Situka and SC401 as the maize varieties
planted. Based on the results of the study, it is recommended that farmers should employ
improved agronomic management practices only when the seasonal forecast indicates above
normal rainfall. The early availability of seasonal rainfall forecast is thus vital. Alternatively, farmers are much safer if they continue to employ their conventional approaches of farming because these have lower risks.
Description
Journal article
Keywords
APSIM, Agronomic management strategies, Climate change, Rainfall variability