Predicting land use/cover changes and its association to agricultural production on the slopes of Mount Kilimanjaro, Tanzania
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Date
2021
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Taylor & Francis Group
Abstract
Increasing demand for food production results in Land use and land cover (LULC) changes, which
afflicts the provision of ecosystem services in high mountain areas. This work used time-series LULC
and selected spatial metrics to predict the LULC changes for Kikafu-Weruweru-Karanga (KWK)
watershed (on the southern slopes of Mt. Kilimanjaro) for the next decade. LULC maps were
generated by classifying time-series satellite images. We further predicted the implications for
selected staple crop production over the next decade. The simulated LULC shows expansion in
built-up (by 32.55%/27.04 km2) and agriculture (by 39.52%/52.0 km2) areas from 2018 to 2030.
These results suggest that urbanization is likely the next biggest threat to water availability and
food production. Grasslands and wetlands are expected to decrease by 57.24% and 39.29%,
respectively. The forest area is likely to shrink by 6.37%, about 9.82 km2, and 1.26 km2 being
converted to agriculture and built-up areas, respectively. However, expansion in agricultural land
shows very little increase in staple food crop production records, suggesting that farm size plays
a minor role in increasing crop production. Predicting the near future LULC around KWK is useful
for evaluating the likelihood of achieving development and conservation targets that are set
locally, nationally and internationally.
Description
Journal article
Keywords
Land use/cover, Change and distribution, Anthropogenic activities, Remote sensing, Mount Kilimanjaro
Citation
Mateso Said , Canute Hyandye , Hans C. Komakech , Ibrahimu C. Mjemah & Linus K. Munishi (2021): Predicting land use/cover changes and its association to agricultural production on the slopes of Mount Kilimanjaro, Tanzania, Annals of GIS