Evaluation and prediction of the impacts of land cover changes on hydrological processes in data constrained southern slopes of Kilimanjaro, Tanzania
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Date
2021
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
MDPI
Abstract
This study provides a detailed assessment of land cover (LC) changes on the water balance
components on data constrained Kikafu-Weruweru-Karanga (KWK) watershed, using the integrated
approaches of hydrologic modeling and partial least squares regression (PLSR). The soil and water
assessment tool (SWAT) model was validated and used to simulate hydrologic responses of water
balance components response to changes in LC in spatial and temporal scale. PLSR was further used
to assess the influence of individual LC classes on hydrologic components. PLSR results revealed
that expansion in cultivation land and built-up area are the main attributes in the changes in water
yield, surface runoff, evapotranspiration (ET), and groundwater flow. The study findings suggest
that improving the vegetation cover on the hillside and abandoned land area could help to reduce the
direct surface runoff in the KWK watershed, thus, reducing flooding recurring in the area, and that
with the ongoing expansion in agricultural land and built-up areas, there will be profound negative
impacts in the water balance of the watershed in the near future (2030). This study provides a forecast
of the future hydrological parameters in the study area based on changes in land cover if the current
land cover changes go unattended. This study provides useful information for the advancement of
our policies and practices essential for sustainable water management planning
Description
Journal article
Keywords
Land use change, SWAT model, Water balance, PLSR, Mount Kilimanjaro
Citation
Said, M.; Hyandye, C.; Mjemah, I.C.; Komakech, H.C.; Munishi, L.K. Evaluation and Prediction of the Impacts of Land Cover Changes on Hydrological Processes in Data Constrained Southern Slopes of Kilimanjaro, Tanzania. Earth 2021, 2, 225–247. https://doi.org/10.3390/earth2020014