Sumari, Neema SimonUjoh, FananSanga, Camillius2026-05-132026-05-1320263050-6972https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ubtr.2026.100043https://www.suaire.sua.ac.tz/handle/20.500.14820/7580Journal articleThis study quantifies how rapid urbanization affects key ecosystem services in five Tanzanian cities (Arusha, Dar es Salaam, Dodoma, Mbeya, and Mwanza) using a multi-city comparative framework and spatial econometric analysis. MODIS NPP and TerraClimate hydro-climate data were integrated with spatial statistics (Global/Local Moran’s I) and spatial regression models (SLM/SEM) to assess changes from 2010 to 2020. Results show substantial declines in soil water balance (25–40%) and net primary productivity-NPP (15–33%), alongside increased surface runoff (∼30%), with the strongest impacts in Dar-es-Salaam and Dodoma. Significant negative relationships (p < 0.01) between urban expansion and ecosystem services confirm strong spatial dependence and clustered degradation, particularly along peri-urban growth fronts. By moving beyond descriptive mapping to spatially explicit inference, this study links urban form to biophysical change across diverse ecological contexts. The findings provide policy-relevant evidence to guide ecosystem-based urban planning, green infrastructure, and sustainable drainage strategies in support of SDG 11 and SDG 15.enUrbanizationEcology servicesSpatial regressionNet primary productivityWater balanceArticle