Mamuya, Natasha Riverson2025-07-152025-07-152024https://www.suaire.sua.ac.tz/handle/123456789/6841MSc DissertationPrimates perform essential roles in forest ecosystems such as enhancing seed dispersion which is important in the regeneration of fragmented forests and improving soil quality through defecation. Despite their important role in forest ecosystem, they are faced with a greater risk of extinction as a result of massive forest loss and degradation which are greatly influenced by anthropogenic activities such as logging, bush fires, agriculture and settlement expansion. Furthermore, forest loss may be attributed by natural changes such as climate change, droughts and tree die back which may result to changes in forest cover or tree species composition. As an outcome of all these, their population and distribution has been directly impacted, increasing their risk of becoming extinct. Kilombero cluster is one of the biodiversity hotspot areas as it comprises of several protected areas that harbors the vulnerable P. gordonorum such as Udzungwa National Park and the fragmented Magombera Forest Reserve (MFR). Therefore, this study was conducted within Kilombero cluster to identify the population density of P. gordonorum in MFR, identify factors influencing the population density of P. gordonorum in MFR and assess the impact of climate change on the current and future distribution of suitable habitats for P. gordonorum in Kilombero cluster. Systematic distance sampling technique using line transect was used to obtain data for estimating population density. Where a total of 15 transects were established in three habitat types. Along each transect information about primate sightings, occurrence locations, human disturbances and vegetation structure were collected. Furthermore, a combination of field surveys and data downloaded from Global Biodiversity Information Facility was used to identify the current and future distribution of P. gordonorum under the influence of climate change. Shannon Weiner index was used to compute tree species diversity, Allometric models was used for above ground biomass estimation, Generalized Linear Model with Gaussian error function was run to determine the influence of predictor variables on the density of P. gordonorum and non-parametric Kruskal Wallis test was used to test for significant differences in every predictor variable. The results from this study showed that the average density of P. gordonorum in MFR was (27.4±22.12) individuals per km2 and it varied among the three habitat types namely semi-evergreen, semi-deciduous and wooded grassland with a density estimate of (44±11.3) individuals per km2, (5.5±7.4) individuals per km2 and (1±0.5) individuals per km2 respectively. Vegetation structure, availability of preferred food tree species and human disturbances was seen to influence the density of P. gordonorum. Furthermore, findings from this study revealed that, currently, the distribution of suitable habitats for the Udzungwa red colobus monkey covers an area of 1 142 400 ha for highly suitable habitats and these areas will decline to 392 000 ha and to 96 000 ha in 2050 and 2070 respectively according to RCP 8.5. From the findings, isotherm and precipitation of the wettest month were seen to greatly influence the current and future potential distribution of suitable habitats for P. gordonorum. This study has provided sufficient information on the status of P. gordonorum population in MFR. And the impact of climate change on the distribution of P. gordonorum. Furthermore, the study has helped in the identification of high priority areas for conservation of the vulnerable P. gordonorum. Finally, the study recommends for strong management and conservation initiatives for those areas that P. gordonorum have been predicted to occur. Such initiatives should involve improved management capacity in the existing nature forest reserves and village owned forests, protection of the existing wildlife corridors to ensure habitat connectivity, the balance between socio- economic gains and conservation and national wise mitigation strategies such as the reduction of greenhouse gas emission. Thus, this study calls for further research on mapping the distribution of P.gordonorum with an account of climatic variables, vegetation variables such as Normalized Vegetation Index (NDVI), percentage tree cover, topographic variables, and proximity to human disturbances.enAnthropogenic activitiesClimate changeDistributionPopulation densityVegetation structureThesis