Sokoine University of Agriculture

Ecological niche modeling as a tool for prediction of the potential geographic distribution of Bacillus anthracis spores in Tanzania

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dc.contributor.author Mwakapeje, E.R.
dc.contributor.author Ndimuligo, S.A.
dc.contributor.author Mosomtai, G.
dc.contributor.author Nyakarahuka, L.
dc.contributor.author Nonga, H.E.
dc.contributor.author Mdegela, R.H.
dc.contributor.author Skjerve, E.
dc.contributor.author Ayebare, S.
dc.date.accessioned 2019-08-20T06:09:43Z
dc.date.available 2019-08-20T06:09:43Z
dc.date.issued 2018-11-27
dc.identifier.uri https://www.suaire.sua.ac.tz/handle/123456789/2911
dc.description International Journal of Infectious Diseases, 2019; 79: 142–151 en_US
dc.description.abstract Anthrax is caused by the spore-forming, Gram-positive bacterium Bacillus anthracis. The aim of this study was to predict the potential distribution of B. anthracis in Tanzania and produce epidemiological evidence for the management of anthrax outbreaks in the country. Methods: The Maxent algorithm was used to predict areas at risk of anthrax outbreaks based on the occurrence and environmental data in Arusha and Kilimanjaro regions; the model was later transferred to predict the entire country. Seventy percent of the occurrence data were used to train the model, while 30% were used for model evaluation. Results: Four regions of northern Tanzania are predicted to have a high risk for anthrax outbreaks, while the southern and western regions had low-risk areas. Soil type (56.5%), soil pH (23.7%), and isothermally (10.4%) were the most important variables for the model prediction, and the most significant soil types were solonetz, fluvisols, and lithosols. Conclusions: A strong risk level across districts of the Tanzania mainland was identified in this study. A total of 18 districts in Tanzania Mainland are predicted to be at very high risk of an anthrax outbreak occurrence. These findings are important for policymakers to effectively mount targeted control measures for anthrax outbreaks in Tanzania en_US
dc.description.sponsorship World Bank en_US
dc.language.iso en en_US
dc.publisher International Society for Infectious Diseases en_US
dc.subject Habitat suitability en_US
dc.subject Bacillus anthracis en_US
dc.subject Spatial distribution en_US
dc.subject Ecological niche modeling en_US
dc.subject Tanzania en_US
dc.title Ecological niche modeling as a tool for prediction of the potential geographic distribution of Bacillus anthracis spores in Tanzania en_US
dc.type Article en_US
dc.url https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971218349464 en_US


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