Production risk under improved maize production systems in the united republic of Tanzania
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Date
2017
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Publisher
Sokoine University of Agriculture
Abstract
Production risk is very important in developing countries, including Tanzania, which result in variance in production that may have severe consequences for a smallholder farmer and his family. The main aim of this study was to assess the determinants of production risk associated with adoption of improved maize seed varieties in order to inform sustainable food security. The specific objectives were to; (i) evaluate factors affecting the adoption and diffusion of improved maize seed varieties in Tanzania (ii) assess the intensity of adopting improved maize seed varieties; and (iii) determine the factors that increase production risk in farming system which use improved maize seed varieties. The Just and Pope framework and Heckman two step procedure were used to estimate adoption, adoption intensity and production risk function respectively with selection bias taken into account. The study used cross section data collected by national panel of survey in 2012/13 from different agro-ecological zones growing maize in the United Republic of Tanzania. The results from the analysis of adoption show that the factors that influenced adoption and diffusion of improved maize seed varieties significantly were farm size (P<0.05), proportion of land allocated to maize production (P<0.01), organic fertilizer (P<0.01), distance from the farm to homestead (P<0.05), distance from the farm to market (P<0.05) and agro-ecological zones specifically for the Eastern zone (P<0.01) and Southern highlands zone (P<0.10). The adoption intensity was influenced significantly by farm size (P<0.01), proportion of land allocated to improved maize seed varieties (P<0.01), organic fertilizer (P<0.05), quantity of herbicides (P<0.05), adult equivalent (P<0.10) and agro-ecological zone specifically Western zone (P<0.05). Lastly, the results of the analysis of production risk show that age, quantity of herbicides and adult equivalent were the only factors that influenced production risk positively at (P<0.10), (P<0.01) and (P<0.01) respectively. The study recommends improvement in the provision of extension services both in terms of number of visits and quality of extension services provided to farmers to encourage the adoption of improved maize seed varieties, the use of organic fertilizers and other improved technologies so as to increase maize yield. In addition, the study recommends further research to generate information that will allow planners to predict future trends of maize production to inform future food security decisions. In this regard the use of time series and panel data is recommended over the use of cross-sectional data.
Description
Masters Thesis
Keywords
Production risk, Maize production systems, Tanzania, Maize production systems, Improved seed varieties, Diffusion of innovations, Agricultural extension