Extending the ReNAPRI model framework to poultry in Eastern & Southern Africa
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Date
2021-02
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
European Commission
Abstract
In per capita terms, poultry consumption in Sub Saharan Africa remains low. As income
grows, allowing for greater dietary diversification, expectations are that poultry
consumption will also increase. To understand the possible extent of growth, as well as
the possibilities to expand domestic production to supply it, this report considers
demand preferences for poultry products in the region, before providing an overview of
the current structure of poultry value chains in South Africa, Ghana, Kenya and
Tanzania, as well as a quantitative modelling framework and a consistent market
outlook, which integrates chicken and feed sectors and can be utilised to support
strategic decision making in the sector in a forward looking context. The study found a
tension between rapid growth in imports, and the general consumer preference for
domestically produced chicken meat over imported products, and in many regions a
preference for indigenous breeds over broilers. Despite differences between countries,
the contribution of intensive production systems is growing, but cost competitiveness is
a major driver of rising imports, underscoring the importance of a competitive feed
sector to grow poultry production. Under baseline assumptions, imports are projected
to remain an important contributor in supplying further demand growth. Nevertheless,
a combination of interventions addressing productivity gains, feed cost competitiveness
and carcass valuation opportunities can induce accelerated production growth, enabling
domestic producers to capture a greater share of domestic demand growth in future.
Description
D3 – Final Report
Keywords
ReNAPRI model framework, poultry, Eastern Africa, Southern Africa, Agri-Economic policy, Agriculture & Development Policy, Africa, poultry consumption, dietary diversification, chicken feeds