Sokoine University of Agriculture

Sorghum yield response to changing climatic conditions in semi-arid central Tanzania: evaluating crop simulation model applicability

Show simple item record Msongaleli, Barnabas Rwehumbiza, Filbert Tumbo, Siza D. Kihupi, Nganga I. 2014-12-03T07:10:30Z 2014-12-03T07:10:30Z 2013
dc.identifier.other DOI: 10.4236/as.2014.510087
dc.description This article is available at en_US
dc.description.abstract Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) and Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) were calibrated and evaluated to simulate sorghum (Sorghum Bicolor L. Moench) var. Tegemeo under current and future climate in central Tanzania. Simulations for both current and future periods were run assuming present technology, current varieties and current agronomy packages to investigate rain-fed sorghum yield response. Simulations by both crop models using downscaled weather data from eight General Circulation Models (GCMs) under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) and Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 4.5) by mid-century show a mixture of increase and decrease in median sorghum yields. Four GCMs project yields to increase by 5% - 23.0% and one GCM show a decrease by 2% - 9%. Model simulations under the remaining three GCMs give contrasting results of increase and decrease. Adjustment of crop duration to mimic the choice of growing local cultivars versus improved cultivars seems a feasible option under future climate scenarios. Our simulation results show that current open-pollinated sorghum cultivars would be resilient to projected changes in climate by 2050s but things seem better with long duration cultivars. We conclude that crop simulation models show their applicability as tools for assessing possible impacts of climate change on sorghum due to agreement in the direction of crop yield predictions in five out of eight selected GCMs under projected climate scenarios. The findings provide useful guidance and motivation to government authorities and development agencies dealing with food security issues to prioritize adaptations policies geared to ensuring increased and sustained sorghum productivity in Tanzania and elsewhere. en_US
dc.description.sponsorship The Regional Universities Forum for Capacity Building in Agriculture (RUFORUM) en_US
dc.language.iso en en_US
dc.subject Yield prediction en_US
dc.subject Climate change en_US
dc.subject Model evaluation en_US
dc.subject Adaptation en_US
dc.subject Tanzania en_US
dc.subject Agriculture en_US
dc.subject Agricultural production en_US
dc.subject Climatic conditions en_US
dc.subject Semi arid en_US
dc.subject Sorghum en_US
dc.title Sorghum yield response to changing climatic conditions in semi-arid central Tanzania: evaluating crop simulation model applicability en_US
dc.type Article en_US

Files in this item

This item appears in the following Collection(s)

Show simple item record

Search SUA IR


My Account