Are rainfall and temperature really changing? Farmer’s perceptions, meteorological data, and policy implications in the Tanzanian semi-arid zone
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Date
2017
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Sustainability
Abstract
Although various climate models, statistical crop models and economic simulations have
been established to determine the level of farmers’ vulnerability, there has been little systematic
assessment of farmers’ perception towards climate change in association with meteorological analyses
and policy implications in Tanzania. The results from this assessment will enhance the formation
of robust policies that improve resilient livelihoods and the capacity to adapt to climate change
and variability. This paper seeks to (i) reveal the farmers’ perception on variation, change of
rainfall, and temperature in the Tanzanian semi-arid area; (ii) depict meteorological evidence for the
perceived rainfall and temperature changes; (iii) assess the policy perception and responses for the
changing climate; and (iv) discuss the correlation between farmers’ perception and meteorological
data. Household surveys, informative interviews and discussions were employed during data
collection. The Mann-Kendall Test and SPSS (version 20) were used for climate data analyses,
while qualitative data were thematically analyzed. The results showed that from 1980 to 2015 the
mean annual rainfall decreased ( R2 = 0.21) while temperature increased (R2 = 0.30). Even though
majority farmers agreed with these results, they had not yet taken serious measures to curb the
situation. Besides, Agricultural Policy has lightly addressed and enforced the implementations of
adaptation strategies to reduce climate impacts and vulnerability. Thereby, creation of awareness and
intensification of climate adaptation strategies is needed at both farm and policy level.
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Keywords
Tanzania, Vulnerability, Semi-arid agro-ecological zones, Government policies, Farmers’ perception, Climate models, Climate change adaptation, Agricultural production