Sokoine University of Agriculture

Land cover change and carbon emissions over 100 years in an African biodiversity hotspot

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dc.contributor.author Willcock, S.
dc.contributor.author Phillips, O . l.
dc.contributor.author Platts, P. J.
dc.contributor.author Swetnam, R. D.
dc.contributor.author Balmford, A.
dc.contributor.author Burgess, N. D.
dc.contributor.author Ahrends, A.
dc.contributor.author Bayliss, J.
dc.contributor.author Doggart, N.
dc.contributor.author Doody, K.
dc.contributor.author Fanning, E.
dc.contributor.author Green, J. M. H.
dc.contributor.author Hall, J.
dc.contributor.author Howell, K. l.
dc.contributor.author Lovett, J. C.
dc.contributor.author Marchant, R.
dc.contributor.author Marshall, A. R.
dc.contributor.author Mbilinyi, B.
dc.contributor.author Munishi, P. K. T.
dc.contributor.author Owen, N.
dc.contributor.author Topp-Jorgensen, E. J.
dc.contributor.author Lewis, S. l.
dc.date.accessioned 2018-06-18T08:54:37Z
dc.date.available 2018-06-18T08:54:37Z
dc.date.issued 2016
dc.identifier.issn 1354-1013
dc.identifier.uri http://www.suaire.sua.ac.tz/handle/123456789/2381
dc.description Global Change Biology,2016) 22, 2787–2800, en_US
dc.description.abstract Agricultural expansion has resulted in both land use and land cover change (LULCC) across the tropics. However, the spatial and temporal patterns of such change and their resulting impacts are poorly understood, particularly for the presatellite era. Here, we quantify the LULCC history across the 33.9 million ha watershed of Tanzania’s Eastern Arc Mountains, using geo-referenced and digitized historical land cover maps (dated 1908, 1923, 1949 and 2000). Our time series from this biodiversity hotspot shows that forest and savanna area both declined, by 74% (2.8 million ha) and 10% (2.9 million ha), respectively, between 1908 and 2000. This vegetation was replaced by a fivefold increase in cropland, from 1.2 million ha to 6.7 million ha. This LULCC implies a committed release of 0.9 Pg C (95% CI: 0.4– 1.5) across the watershed for the same period, equivalent to 0.3 Mg C ha 1 yr 1. This is at least threefold higher than previous estimates from global models for the same study area. We then used the LULCC data from before and after protected area creation, as well as from areas where no protection was established, to analyse the effectiveness of legal protection on land cover change despite the underlying spatial variation in protected areas. We found that, between 1949 and 2000, forest expanded within legally protected areas, resulting in carbon uptake of 4.8 (3.8–5.7) Mg C ha 1, compared to a committed loss of 11.9 (7.2–16.6) Mg C ha 1 within areas lacking such protection. Furthermore, for nine protected areas where LULCC data are available prior to and following establishment, we show that protection reduces deforestation rates by 150% relative to unprotected portions of the watershed. Our results highlight that considerable LULCC occurred prior to the satellite era, thus other data sources are required to better understand long-term land cover trends in the tropics. en_US
dc.language.iso en en_US
dc.publisher Wiley Researcher Academy. en_US
dc.subject Afforestation en_US
dc.subject Carbon en_US
dc.subject Deforestation en_US
dc.subject Ecosystem service en_US
dc.subject Emission en_US
dc.subject Protected area en_US
dc.subject Reforestation en_US
dc.subject Land use change en_US
dc.title Land cover change and carbon emissions over 100 years in an African biodiversity hotspot en_US
dc.type Article en_US
dc.url https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13218 en_US


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