Seasonal variability of rice prices, temporal and spatial business opportunities in the major rice production areas of Tanzania
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Date
2017
Authors
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Publisher
Sokoine University of Agriculture
Abstract
Rice farmers have a tendency to sell their rice right after harvesting, thus they have been
facing low rice prices which lead to low income, consumption of other food items and
welfare. This study assessed the seasonal rice price variation, its magnitude and identified
the opportunities in time and space for rice farmers and traders in Tanzania. The five
leading rice producing regions; Mbeya, Morogoro, Mwanza, Tabora and Shinyanga were
selected to represent rice markets in Tanzania. The selection of these markets allowed
comparisons of marketing opportunities within and between regions. The ratio to moving
average was employed in the analysis of the time series data from 1996-2012 obtained
from the Ministry of Industry, Trade and Marketing in Tanzania. Basing on Coefficient of
variation, the results indicated that seasonality existed as prices were the highest in April
and the lowest in August. Thus, farmers would gain more by storing rice during the
harvest period for future sale around April when prices were high. With respect to
business opportunity between regions, the results show that the prospect for inter-regional
rice trade was better when Gross real return to storage per unit distance increased between
pairs of the markets. However, nearby inter-regional trade is more profitable as compared
to far distance. Long-term analysis of market information is crucial to inform inter
regional trade decisions and minimize vulnerability level resulting from seasonal price
variability.
Description
A DISSERTATION SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF THE
REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF SCIENCE IN
AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS OF SOKOINE UNIVERSITY OF
AGRICULTURE. MOROGORO, TANZANIA.
Keywords
Rice seasonal variability, Rice prices, Partial business opportunities, Major areas rice production, Tanzania