Abstract:
Worldwide, climate change and variability have been raising concerns about potential
changes to crop yields and production systems. The present study focuses on the effects
of climate variability on coffee production among smallholder farmers in highland zone
of Kigoma district western part of Tanzania. Specifically, this study aimed at determining
how climate variability affects coffee production and the strategies taken by farmers to
cope with the problem. Also, this study determined farmers‟ perceptions about the climate
change and variability. Rainfall data and coffee production data for the past thirty years
(1981-2010) were used to study the trend relationship between climate change and
agricultural production. Data were collected using household survey, interviews, focus
group discussion, documentary review and field observation. Sampling unit was the
household; a total of 120 respondents were selected from 5 villages. Purposive sampling
technique was employed to get the study wards and villages. Two wards were purposively
selected and five villages from both wards were selected purposively. In each selected
village, 24 households producing coffee were randomly selected from the village register
to make a total number of 120 respondents. Correlation analysis was used to examine the
relationship of rainfall variability and coffee production in the area while a simple linear
regression was used to study the effect of rainfall variability/change on coffee production.
Both rainfall and coffee production showed a decreasing trend. The correlation between
both trends was insignificant at 5% probability level. Given the weak correlation between
rainfall and coffee production and the decreasing trend for both, it can be concluded that,
coffee production was not much influenced by rainfall, but there must be other factors
like shortage of agricultural inputs such as fertilizers and pesticides which influence
coffee production in the study area.
